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Trade Deal, Fed Uncertainty, Lower Energy Prices

Financial Update: Week of May 12, 2025

Last week brought trade framework progress between the U.S. and the U.K. and a Federal Reserve that seemed a bit uncertain during its policy meeting. Read on for a bite-sized summary of what you should know.

Weekly Stock Index Performance

For the week ending May 9th, major U.S. stock market indexes were marginally lower, with smaller trading ranges and lower volatility than we have seen in recent weeks.

  • The S&P 500 decreased by 0.47%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.16%.
  • The Nasdaq 100 finished the week lower by 0.20%.

U.S-U.K.Trade Deal 

  • While last week started sluggishly for stocks on Monday and Tuesday, news broke on Wednesday of a trade deal on the horizon between the U.S. and the U.K. Markets liked the sound of that, and investor sentiment picked up heading into Thursday’s meeting in the Oval Office between President Donald Trump and  Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the U.S.
  • Broad outlines of the deal were unveiled at the gathering, while full agreement details were not readily available. It seems that the U.S. duties on steel from the U.K. will drop to zero from 25%. 
  • The agreement seems to set an early “baseline” on tariffs at 10%.

Energy Down, Bitcoin Up

  • Positive developments on trade aside, gas prices have surely headed lower recently here at home. With the price of crude oil reaching four-year lows last week, drivers should save a few bucks heading into the peak driving season this year.
  • The national average for gasoline in the U.S. was $3.135 per gallon (regular) as of 5/11/25, according to data from AAA. One year ago, the national average price per gallon was $3.625 — good news for drivers approaching the Memorial Day holiday.
  • Cryptocurrency prices rose after the trade agreement last week, with the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin, rising to over $100,000 per coin. The recent all-time high was back in January of this year near $109,000.

Uncertain Fed?

  • As expected, the Fed left its key overnight lending rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at its May meeting last week. 
  • An uncertain tone was struck given some recent economic developments featuring economic strength, and others showing weakness. The Fed ruled out any preemptive rate cuts relating to tariffs.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s “wait and see” mentality and made some other notable comments regarding the state of the economy.

The Week Ahead = CPI & More

  • After last week’s quiet stock index trading ranges and little in the way of economic news, this week is a bit different! 
  • We get Consumer Price Index data on Tuesday. On Thursday, we will get Producer Price Index data, retail sales data, and Powell speaking at an event. And consumer sentiment data will be released on Friday.

That’s it for this week’s update! If you’d like to delve into these topics further or have any other questions or needs as the week unfolds, don’t hesitate to reach out. I am always here as a resource for you.

Virgil’s Corner

A SPRING AFTERNOON

The sun shines down on silence.    All is still.     It seems the world has stopped, at least for a moment to contemplate its own self.

What does it see?    A sky that is achingly blue…a reflection of the Ocean, oh, so far away, but here before our eyes now.   A sun bright and warm, holding tree branches and limbs and leaves in eternal calm.

One cannot help being caught up in this moment of Spring of another year.   Problems, worries…they have vanished.  At least for now.

They are replaced by a peace that rests our souls…a peace that reminds us of who we really are…..travelers in time and space…always moving to fulfill our Destiny…which is to find and to cherish …the good and the kindness and the beauty….in ourselves …and in others….

Time now to close our eyes and think about these mysteries…on…

An Afternoon In The Spring.

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Disclosure:
This material provided by Levitate.  Levitate is not affiliated with Valmark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The information provided has been derived from sources believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete analysis of the material discussed, nor does is constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, products or services mentioned.

May 13, 2025 by Grand River Capital

Filed Under: Blog

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